Donald Trump accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics of rigging jobs data. But how are these reports really produced? We break down how the BLS collects and revises employment numbers.
Table of Contents
Introduction
In a fiery statement on Truth Social, former President Donald Trump accused the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of orchestrating a “scam” by manipulating the jobs report to damage his political reputation. Trump’s claim came on the heels of significant revisions to recent jobs data and culminated in his firing of BLS Commissioner Dr. Erika McEntarfer. But are his accusations grounded in fact? This article breaks down how the BLS works, how jobs data is collected, and why revisions happen — demystifying a key economic indicator that affects everything from Federal Reserve decisions to business planning.
What Is the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)?
Established in 1884, the BLS is a nonpartisan, independent statistical agency within the U.S. Department of Labor. The agency’s mission is to collect, analyze, and disseminate essential economic information to support public and private decision-making.
Key Facts:
- Operates under the Department of Labor
- Led by a Senate-confirmed commissioner
- Employs over 2,000 economists, statisticians, and survey takers
The BLS provides critical data on:
- Employment and unemployment
- Wages and earnings
- Consumer prices and inflation
- Productivity
- Workplace injuries
How Does the BLS Collect Jobs Data?
The BLS relies on two main surveys to compile employment statistics:
1. Household Survey (Current Population Survey)
- Conducted by the Census Bureau
- Involves about 60,000 eligible households monthly
- Collects data on individuals’ employment status, demographics, and more
2. Establishment Survey (Current Employment Statistics)
- Sent to 122,000 businesses and government agencies
- Covers about 666,000 individual worksites
- Captures information on payroll jobs, hours, and earnings
The household survey gives us the unemployment rate, while the establishment survey reveals how many jobs were added or lost.
How Are Jobs Numbers Compiled and Adjusted?
Once the data is gathered, the BLS processes it in several steps:
- Error Checking: Survey responses are reviewed for anomalies or reporting mistakes.
- Weighting and Estimating: Raw data is adjusted to represent the broader population.
- Seasonal Adjustments: Adjustments smooth out predictable seasonal employment changes, like holiday hiring.
- Publication: The Employment Situation Summary is released on the first Friday of each month.
Importantly, the first release of each month’s data is preliminary, subject to revision as more complete data becomes available.
Why Are Jobs Numbers Revised?
Revisions are a normal and expected part of the jobs reporting process. They happen for several reasons:
- Late Survey Responses: Some businesses report after the BLS deadline.
- New Seasonal Adjustment Models: As the economy evolves, BLS periodically updates its models.
- Benchmarking: Each year, BLS aligns survey data with more complete tax records.
Revisions typically happen:
- The two months following the initial report
- During preliminary annual revision in August
- In the final annual revision in February
Were the Latest Revisions Unusual?
In July, the BLS revised:
- May 2025 jobs total: From 139,000 to 19,000 (a 120,000-job revision)
- June 2025 jobs total: From 147,000 to 14,000 (a 133,000-job revision)
While these were large adjustments, they were not unprecedented. During the pandemic in March 2020, for example, a single month saw a 679,000-job revision due to widespread reporting issues.
Other notable revisions:
- January 2009: 143,000-job revision
- Annual 2009: Largest-ever revision at 902,000 jobs
- Annual 2024: Final revision showed 589,000 fewer jobs than initially reported
Trump’s Claims vs. the Facts
Claim: “The jobs numbers were rigged to make me look bad.”
- Fact: No evidence supports that the BLS manipulated data with political intent.
Claim: “Erika McEntarfer made the biggest miscalculations in over 50 years.”
- Fact: Revisions were significant, but not historically unique or record-setting.
Claim: “August and September 2024 numbers were revised just before the election.”
- Fact: True, but consistent with routine revisions seen in prior years.
How Does the BLS Safeguard Its Integrity?
The BLS uses multiple layers of protections:
- Confidentiality Laws: Prevents disclosure of individual or business data
- Statistical Models: Designed and reviewed by independent experts
- Peer Reviews: Methods are routinely audited and peer-reviewed
Former BLS Commissioner William Beach defended the agency, saying:
“BLS is the finest statistical agency in the world. Its numbers are trusted globally.”
Who Uses BLS Jobs Data?
BLS data is foundational to the U.S. economy:
Federal Reserve:
- Sets interest rates based on labor market data
- Chair Jerome Powell emphasized: “Good data helps the Fed, the government, and the private sector.”
Private Sector:
- Businesses use the data for hiring, wages, and investment decisions
Other Government Agencies:
- Social Security Administration
- Department of Commerce
- National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER)
Research Institutions:
- Conference Board
- Economic think tanks
Can Any Alternative Replace BLS Jobs Data?
ADP Payroll Report:
- Covers private sector only
- Often diverges significantly from BLS data
Challenger Layoffs Report:
- Tracks planned layoffs
- Informative but limited in scope
Despite its imperfections, the BLS report remains the gold standard due to its breadth, transparency, and methodological rigor.
Political Implications and Dangers of Undermining Trust
Trump’s allegations raise concerns about the politicization of impartial data. Economists and data scientists warn that undermining public trust in these institutions can have long-term negative effects.
Dr. Erika McEntarfer’s dismissal, though within a president’s authority, may discourage qualified experts from serving in public roles if they fear political retaliation.
In the words of economist Jason Furman:
“This attack is not on a single report. It’s an attack on the very infrastructure of economic data the U.S. has relied on for a century.”
Final Thoughts
The Bureau of Labor Statistics stands as a pillar of objective economic measurement. While no statistical method is flawless, its processes are robust, transparent, and refined over decades. Political figures may question the data’s implications, but claiming the process is rigged without evidence undermines a critical public good.
The recent revisions to job numbers reflect normal statistical processes, not partisan bias. As the economy becomes more complex and digital, the need for trustworthy data is more important than ever. America needs strong, nonpartisan institutions. The BLS is one of them.
FAQ: Understanding the BLS and the Jobs Report
Q: What is the BLS? A: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is a federal agency that collects and reports data on employment, wages, and other economic indicators.
Q: How are jobs numbers collected? A: Through two major surveys: one of households and one of businesses.
Q: Why are jobs reports revised? A: To account for late responses and updated data, and to apply improved seasonal adjustment models.
Q: Are big revisions like May and June 2025 common? A: They’re rare but not unprecedented. Revisions are a standard part of the process.
Q: Did BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer manipulate the data? A: There is no evidence of political manipulation.
Q: Can ADP or other private reports replace BLS data? A: Not effectively. Most economists still view the BLS report as the most reliable.
Q: Who uses BLS data? A: The Federal Reserve, government agencies, private companies, and research institutions.