Nvidia will resume H20 AI chip shipments to China after securing U.S. export licenses. What this means for AI geopolitics, Nvidia’s revenue, and global tech races.
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Nvidia to Restart AI Chip Sales to China After U.S. Reversal
Nvidia just flipped the script — and it could reshape global AI tech competition.
🛠 What Just Happened?
On July 14, 2025, Nvidia announced it’s applying to export its H20 AI accelerator chip to China again — after receiving assurances that licenses will be approved. This comes after an earlier restriction in April that halted China sales, costing the company billions in lost revenue.
💰 Why This Matters for Nvidia
- The H20 chip was specifically designed for China amid U.S. export controls.
- In Q1 2025, Nvidia wrote off $4.5 billion in inventory and lost $2.5 billion in sales, expecting up to $8 billion in Q2.
- China made up 13–17% of Nvidia’s sales, roughly $17 billion last year.
🤝 A Wider Trade and Political Signal
- CEO Jensen Huang brought this up directly with President Trump at the White House, arguing that excluding China risks U.S. AI supremacy.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirms this chip deal is a negotiation lever in broader U.S.–China trade talks.
- The market reacted positively: Nvidia stock jumped ~5%, boosting Nasdaq futures, and Barron’s calls it a “$200 billion market cap boost”.
🔄 Strategic Implications
- China’s AI firms rushed to reserve H20 chips ahead of license approval.
- Nvidia is also rolling out the RTX PRO GPU, tailored for Chinese industrial AI, signaling dual-market strategy.
- Huang emphasized half of global AI developers are in China — limiting their access could shift them toward non‑U.S. tech.
- The move suggests a softening in U.S. export policy and improved China relations .
🚦 What Comes Next
- Nvidia expects deliveries to China to begin “soon”, pending export license approvals.
- Analysts estimate it could reclaim $15–20 billion in annual revenue, helping restore its valuation beyond the $4 trillion mark and possibly toward $5 trillion.
- National security concerns remain: U.S. lawmakers warn the chips could aid China’s military AI programs.
✅ Key Takeaways
- Nvidia is set to resume H20 AI chip sales to China after securing U.S. license assurances.
- This reversal erases billions in losses and sends Nvidia’s stock sharply higher.
- It marks a strategic recalibration in U.S.–China tech diplomacy.
- While lucrative, it raises fresh national-security concerns.
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❓ FAQ
Q: Why was H20 halted before?
U.S. export rules blocked the chip in April over national security. Nvidia lost about $2.5B in Q1 and expected $8B in Q2 sales losses.
Q: What is the RTX PRO GPU?
A less powerful AI chip Nvidia launched to comply with export limits — designed for industrial AI use in China.
Q: Will sales actually resume?
Yes — licenses are expected soon, and deliveries are likely to begin shortly after approval.
