Discover Goldman Sachs’ top trade ideas for the upcoming 2025 earnings season. From tech and energy to consumer stocks, learn how to position your portfolio like a pro and capitalize on market volatility.
The U.S. earnings season is almost here — and Wall Street is already buzzing. One name that always gets attention? Goldman Sachs.
Known for its bold strategies and razor-sharp market analysis, Goldman just dropped its top trade picks ahead of the upcoming earnings wave — and retail investors everywhere are paying attention.
So, what exactly is Goldman betting on?
Which sectors are they bullish (or bearish) on?
And what does it all mean for your portfolio, whether you’re trading stocks, options, or just trying to be smart with your 401(k)?
Let’s break it all down — in plain, actionable English.
📈 First — Why Is Earnings Season So Important?
If you’re new to this, earnings season is the few weeks every quarter when public companies reveal how they actually performed — revenue, profits, guidance, and all.
Wall Street watches these announcements like a hawk because they move markets fast and hard. A strong earnings beat can send a stock soaring 10%+ in a day. A miss? It might tank.
It’s like report card season for the financial world.
And this time around, things are especially tense because:
- The Fed is signaling possible rate cuts — but not if inflation stays hot
- Consumers are spending less in certain areas (but not all)
- AI and tech continue to dominate headlines and valuations
- And there’s a growing concern that valuations are getting ahead of reality
That’s where Goldman Sachs’ trade picks come in.
🧠 Goldman’s Earnings Season Strategy — The Big Picture
Goldman isn’t just guessing. They use:
- Historical data
- Options pricing
- Analyst sentiment
- And proprietary modeling
Their goal? Identify underpriced opportunities or overhyped risks around earnings announcements.
This year, Goldman’s approach is focused on asymmetric risk-reward — meaning:
“We’re looking for trades that have a big upside if we’re right and limited downside if we’re wrong.”
Let’s get into the trades.
💻 1. Bullish on Tech — But Only the Essentials
Goldman is still riding the AI and data infrastructure wave, but with more caution than in past quarters.
✅ Top Pick: Microsoft (MSFT)
Why?
- Strong recurring revenue from Azure and Office 365
- Enterprise AI integration growing faster than expected
- Beating estimates consistently for the past 6 quarters
Goldman’s Play:
They suggest buying short-term call options on MSFT ahead of earnings, expecting a 5–8% upside surprise.
Retail Investor Tip:
If you’re risk-averse, consider a small ETF position in XLK (Technology Select Sector ETF) — which holds Microsoft, Apple, and NVIDIA.
🛒 2. Undervalued Consumer Stocks With Surprise Potential
Inflation has cooled — but many consumer stocks are still priced for pain. Goldman believes there’s room for positive surprises.
✅ Top Pick: Target (TGT)
Why?
- Inventory issues resolved
- Private-label growth driving margins
- Consumer spending stabilizing among middle-income groups
Goldman’s Play:
Long equity or bull call spread for a potential 6–10% post-earnings pop.
Also on Goldman’s radar:
- Nike (NKE) for overseas recovery
- McDonald’s (MCD) for resilient demand and global pricing power
🧬 3. Healthcare Bounce-Back Bets
Healthcare has underperformed YTD, but Goldman sees a reversal brewing.
✅ Top Pick: UnitedHealth Group (UNH)
Why?
- Stable revenue model (Medicare, employer coverage, Optum services)
- Strong history of earnings beats
- Defensive play amid rate cut uncertainty
Goldman’s Play:
Stock accumulation + options straddle (expecting a big move in either direction)
Runner-Up Picks:
- Pfizer (PFE) — priced for disaster, could surprise
- AbbVie (ABBV) — biotech rebound potential
🛢️ 4. Energy Is Heating Up Again
With oil prices creeping higher and geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Goldman is quietly getting more bullish on energy.
✅ Top Pick: ExxonMobil (XOM)
Why?
- Recent acquisition of Pioneer boosts shale output
- Shareholder-friendly (dividends + buybacks)
- Energy prices could rise into Q3/Q4
Goldman’s Play:
Stock accumulation through earnings; optional covered calls for income.
ETF Alternative:
XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund) — broad energy exposure with good liquidity.
🏦 5. Financials: A Split Decision
Goldman is taking a neutral-to-bearish stance on most banks, except for a few they believe are underestimated.
✅ Top Pick: Bank of America (BAC)
Why?
- Less exposed to commercial real estate than peers
- Deposit base remains strong
- Net interest income stabilizing
Avoid:
Goldman is bearish on smaller regional banks and commercial REITs.
Earnings warning issued for:
- First Republic (FRC)
- KeyCorp (KEY)
- New York Community Bank (NYCB)
Goldman’s Play:
Long BAC + short a basket of weak regionals (a pairs trade)
💡 What This Means for Everyday Investors
You don’t need a hedge fund account to benefit from these insights. Here’s how smart retail investors can use Goldman’s strategy:
✅ 1. Don’t Chase the Hype — Trade the Setup
The key isn’t guessing who beats earnings — it’s identifying:
- Who’s underestimated
- Who’s priced for perfection and could disappoint
Think of earnings season like a poker game. It’s not about the best hand, but about how the table is betting.
✅ 2. Use ETFs if You’re Not an Active Trader
Not into stock picking? Use sector ETFs to gain exposure:
- XLK for tech
- XLY for consumer discretionary
- XLE for energy
- XLV for healthcare
This spreads your risk across the sector, but you still benefit from broad earnings moves.
✅ 3. Consider Earnings Volatility Trades
Even if you don’t know the direction, earnings season brings volatility.
Strategies to explore:
- Options straddles (betting on a big move either way)
- Credit spreads (if you think the move will be smaller than implied)
- Covered calls for income on stocks you already own
✅ 4. Keep an Eye on the Fed
Earnings aren’t the only game in town. If earnings are strong but inflation spikes again, the Federal Reserve may stay hawkish — bad for growth stocks.
If earnings disappoint and the Fed stays dovish?
That’s when the rate-sensitive sectors could shine.
🧭 Final Thoughts: Should You Copy Goldman?
Not exactly. Goldman Sachs has deep pockets, fast algorithms, and insider-level research.
But their public trades provide valuable clues:
- Which sectors are heating up
- Where Wall Street sees surprise potential
- How volatility is being priced in
If you’re a retail investor in 2025, ignoring earnings season means missing major short-term opportunities — and Goldman’s insights can help you play smarter.
The goal isn’t to guess the future. It’s to understand how expectations, positioning, and sentiment collide — and to position your portfolio accordingly.
📌 TL;DR – Goldman’s Top Trades This Earnings Season
| Sector | Top Pick | Strategy |
|---|---|---|
| Tech | Microsoft (MSFT) | Buy calls or XLK ETF |
| Consumer | Target (TGT) | Long equity / bull call spread |
| Healthcare | UnitedHealth (UNH) | Accumulate + straddle |
| Energy | ExxonMobil (XOM) | Stock + covered calls |
| Financials | Bank of America (BAC) | Long BAC, short regionals |
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