Fundstrat’s Tom Lee joins Squawk Box to discuss 2026 market outlook, AI trade state, and bitcoin price trends. Get his expert predictions and analysis inside.
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Tom Lee Shares Bold 2026 Outlook on AI Trade, Bitcoin Trends, and Market Direction
Fundstrat Global Advisors Head of Research and Fundstrat Capital CIO Tom Lee joined CNBC’s ‘Squawk Box’ to deliver his comprehensive outlook on markets heading into 2026. The influential Wall Street strategist addressed the state of the AI trade, bitcoin price trajectories, and broader market trends. Lee’s consistently bullish perspective has earned attention throughout 2024 and 2025, making his forward-looking views essential reading for investors.
Tom Lee Returns to Squawk Box
Tom Lee’s appearances on CNBC consistently generate investor interest. His track record and willingness to make specific calls have built a substantial following.
The Fundstrat founder addressed multiple topics during the wide-ranging interview. His analysis covered equities, artificial intelligence investments, and cryptocurrency markets.
Lee’s dual role as Head of Research and CIO provides both analytical and practical investment perspectives that inform his market views.
Broader Market Trends Assessment
Lee opened with his assessment of current market conditions and trajectory. His analysis framed the environment investors face heading into the new year.
Market trend observations:
| Factor | Lee’s View |
|---|---|
| Overall direction | Constructive outlook maintained |
| Economic foundation | Fundamentals remain supportive |
| Earnings trajectory | Corporate profits healthy |
| Valuation context | Justified by growth prospects |
| Risk factors | Acknowledging but not alarmed |
Lee’s macro perspective provides context for his sector-specific views. Understanding his broader framework helps interpret individual calls.
The strategist has maintained generally bullish positioning that has served followers well through recent market cycles.
State of the AI Trade
Artificial intelligence investments commanded significant discussion. Lee addressed whether the AI trade remains attractive after substantial gains.
AI trade assessment:
- Durability — AI investment theme has legs remaining
- Broadening — Beneficiaries expanding beyond mega-caps
- Infrastructure — Continued spending on AI capabilities
- Earnings validation — Companies showing AI revenue impact
- Selectivity — Not all AI plays equally attractive
Lee distinguished between AI winners and pretenders. The maturing trade requires more discernment than earlier phases when broad exposure worked.
His specific views on AI positioning offer actionable guidance for technology allocation decisions.
Where AI Opportunities Remain
Lee identified specific areas within AI that he believes offer continued opportunity. His analysis helps investors navigate an increasingly complex landscape.
AI opportunity areas:
| Segment | Opportunity Level |
|---|---|
| Infrastructure plays | Still attractive |
| Application layer | Emerging opportunities |
| Enablers and picks-shovels | Continued demand |
| Enterprise adoption | Early innings |
| Second-derivative beneficiaries | Undiscovered value |
The Fundstrat chief encouraged looking beyond obvious AI names. He suggested the next phase of returns may come from less celebrated beneficiaries.
His framework helps investors identify AI exposure beyond the most crowded positions.
Bitcoin Price Trends
Lee has been notably bullish on bitcoin, and his ‘Squawk Box’ appearance addressed cryptocurrency markets. His views carry particular weight given his early and consistent crypto advocacy.
Bitcoin analysis points:
- Price trajectory assessment for coming year
- Institutional adoption trends continuing
- Regulatory environment evolution
- Supply dynamics post-halving
- Correlation with risk assets
Lee provided specific perspective on where bitcoin might trade. His bitcoin calls have attracted attention for their accuracy over multiple cycles.
The cryptocurrency discussion connected to broader risk appetite themes affecting all markets.
Lee’s Bitcoin Price Framework
The Fundstrat strategist outlined his thinking on bitcoin valuation. His framework helps investors understand cryptocurrency positioning.
Bitcoin framework elements:
| Factor | Influence |
|---|---|
| Institutional flows | Driving structural demand |
| ETF impact | Democratizing access |
| Halving effects | Supply reduction bullish |
| Macro correlation | Relationship with liquidity |
| Sentiment cycles | Where we stand currently |
Lee’s bitcoin analysis combines fundamental and technical perspectives. His long-term bullish stance has been validated through multiple price cycles.
Investors tracking cryptocurrency markets received specific guidance on expectations.
2026 Market Outlook
Lee delivered his comprehensive outlook for 2026. The forecast addresses multiple asset classes and market scenarios.
2026 outlook highlights:
| Asset/Theme | Lee’s View |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Continued upside expected |
| Technology sector | Still favored |
| Small caps | Opportunity for catch-up |
| Interest rates | Environment manageable |
| Volatility | Normal corrections healthy |
The strategist set specific expectations that investors can measure against actual outcomes. His willingness to make concrete calls distinguishes his analysis.
Lee’s 2026 targets provide benchmarks for portfolio planning and expectation setting.
Risk Factors Acknowledged
Despite bullish outlook, Lee addressed risks that could derail his base case. Acknowledging potential problems adds credibility to optimistic forecasts.
Risks discussed:
- Policy uncertainty affecting sentiment
- Valuation concerns if earnings disappoint
- Geopolitical developments
- Interest rate surprises
- Recession scenarios
Lee explained why he believes these risks are manageable rather than imminent threats. His risk assessment helps investors understand scenario planning.
The balanced approach acknowledges that even bullish strategists must respect what could go wrong.
Investment Strategy Implications
Lee’s views translate into specific investment strategy considerations. His perspective informs portfolio positioning decisions.
Strategy takeaways:
| Recommendation | Rationale |
|---|---|
| Stay invested | Market trajectory supportive |
| Maintain tech exposure | AI theme has duration |
| Consider small caps | Valuation opportunity |
| Bitcoin allocation | Asymmetric upside potential |
| Manage not avoid risk | Corrections are opportunities |
The actionable nature of Lee’s analysis helps investors implement ideas. He consistently provides practical guidance alongside market commentary.
Portfolio managers and individual investors alike received framework for decision-making.
Track Record Context
Lee’s predictions gain weight from his historical accuracy. Understanding his track record helps evaluate current forecasts.
Historical context:
- Correctly bullish through 2023-2024 rally
- Early bitcoin advocate when others skeptical
- Called market bottoms accurately
- Maintained conviction through volatility
- Acknowledged and learned from misses
The Fundstrat chief has built credibility through consistent performance. Not every call has been perfect, but directional accuracy has been notable.
Investors can weigh his 2026 outlook against this established track record.
FAQs
What is Tom Lee’s outlook for 2026?
Tom Lee expressed a constructive outlook for 2026 during his Squawk Box appearance. He expects continued market upside, ongoing strength in technology and AI investments, potential small-cap catch-up, and bullish bitcoin trajectory. His outlook maintains the optimistic stance that has characterized his recent forecasting.
Does Tom Lee still recommend AI stocks?
Yes, Lee believes the AI trade still has legs, though he emphasizes selectivity. He sees opportunities broadening beyond mega-cap tech to infrastructure plays, application layer companies, and second-derivative beneficiaries. The maturing AI trade requires more discernment than earlier phases.
What is Tom Lee’s view on bitcoin?
Lee remains bullish on bitcoin, citing institutional adoption trends, ETF-driven demand, supply dynamics following the halving, and cryptocurrency’s evolving role in portfolios. His historical accuracy on bitcoin calls lends credibility to his continued positive outlook.
Who is Tom Lee?
Tom Lee is the Head of Research at Fundstrat Global Advisors and CIO of Fundstrat Capital. He’s a widely followed Wall Street strategist known for bold, often bullish market calls. His bitcoin advocacy and accurate market forecasts have built a significant investor following.
What risks does Tom Lee see for markets?
Despite his bullish outlook, Lee acknowledged risks including policy uncertainty, valuation concerns if earnings disappoint, geopolitical developments, interest rate surprises, and potential recession scenarios. He believes these risks are manageable rather than imminent threats.
Conclusion
Tom Lee’s comprehensive ‘Squawk Box’ appearance provided investors with detailed guidance for navigating 2026. The Fundstrat strategist maintained his characteristically bullish stance while offering nuanced views on AI investments, bitcoin trajectories, and broader market trends.
His framework for evaluating the maturing AI trade and continued cryptocurrency optimism gives investors actionable perspectives. The acknowledgment of risks alongside bullish positioning demonstrates balanced analysis.
Lee’s track record ensures his 2026 outlook will be closely monitored as markets evolve through the coming year.
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